[NTLUG:Discuss] DeCSS -- losing the limelight

[al]

Steve Baker wrote:

> Brian Koontz wrote:
> >
> > Which do you think is now the larger threat to the MPAA:  DeCSS or DivX?
>
> They *should* be more concerned with DivX - but it doesn't infringe
> and anti-reverse engineering/patent/whatever rules - so it would be
> pretty hard to kill.
>
> The actual large threat is the COMBINATION of DeCSS and DivX.
> Either one by itself isn't really going to kill them...but
> put them together and toss in some of the new broadband net
> technologies...it won't be long before you can download
> 600Mb faster than you can drive to Blockbusters (twice).
>
> The sheer inevitability of all of this leads me to wonder
> what happens when sound and video is easily copied and
> transmitted over the web.
>
> Assuming this trend continues - as it inevitably will -
> how does anyone make enough money from sales to cover their
> creative costs?
>
> * Advertising?   I hope not - adverts every couple of
>   minutes throughout a movie would NOT be good - and in
>   any case, it'll be easy to skip over them and edit them
>   out when it's all digital...and it's only a matter of
>   time until some AI guru figures out how to skip them
>   automatically by looking at the content.
>
> * Taxation?  In England, the BBC is covered by taxation
>   giving free (and advertising-free) TV and radio. Perhaps
>   Hollywood should be funded that way and all movies
>   given away for free.  A really up-market movie costs
>   maybe $1 per head of US population - so a $50 per head
>   movie tax would fund a brand new movie every week
>   distributed free to everyone who wanted it via the web.
>
> * Voluntary contributions?  Like channel 13 TV and KERA
>   radio?  Where would you hold the pledge drive?
>
> * Tee shirt sales?
>
> * Perhaps improving technology makes movies so cheap
>   to produce that 'freeware' movies take over from
>   commercial offerings.  Realistic 3D rendered actors
>   with fancy AI behaviour could do that for you in
>   due time.  It could be just like OpenSource software
>   where the actions of hundreds of volunteer script
>   writers, directors and 3D renderers would add up to
>   a product on a par to something that big business
>   could produce.
>
> * Perhaps the movie companies realise that releasing
>   the movie on DVD/whatever ultimately brings in
>   so little revenue (because of piracy) that they
>   might as well only show it in movie theatres where
>   they can keep control of their valuable data.
>   They'd lose a ton of money from DVD/VHS sales
>   but movie seats would be fuller - think of the
>   number of people who say "Nah - I'm not going to
>   the movie theater - I'll wait for it to come out
>   on video."
>
> I think something like this has got to happen if
> we still want to see movies ten years from now.
>

Sharp Stuff Steve
:)