[NTLUG:Discuss] Re: Linux article -- corporate desktop adoption will slowly change the consumer

[Steve Baker]

Bryan J. Smith wrote:
> Neil Aggarwal wrote:  
> 
>>This article is completely focused on Linux as a desktop solution.  In
>>that arena, I have to admit that Linux is not ready.  As much as I
>>would love to run Linux on my desk, it is impossible or far too time
>>consuming to get the software that I need to run my business.
> 
> People use applications, not OSes.  If your business has chosen a
> Hostageware format you cannot get out of, no Freedomware solution will
> _ever_ let you "get out of it."  There will always be a conversion cost
> out of a "vendor lock-in solution" like common Hostageware apps.

The significant thing about lock-in is that whilst it may be costly
and painful to escape from it now - it's only going to get more
costly and more painful because lock-in always gets tighter with
every new version.

Just wait until you're locked in to their software at a HARDWARE level
by the wonders of 'content management'.

Every new release of WORD - and every new 'data protection' law that
gets passed makes it harder and harder and less and less legal to
reverse-engineer their file formats.  Right now, DOC files can
more or less pass through OK from WORD to OpenOffice.  This luxury
won't last more than another year or so.

Give it another year or two and the only way you'll get your documents
out of Word and into something else will be to print them out and
scan them back in with OCR.

Give it another five to ten years and watermarks will automatically be
printed out with your documents (for your security!) and watermark
recognition will be legally mandated in every document scanner.  That
will mean you'll have to pay someone to re-type your documents for you
because you won't be able to scan them in or even photocopy them anymore.
(If you don't think this will happen - look at the proposals to write
laws requiring banknote recognition to be built into every printer and
scanner - you don't seriously think the thrust behind this is counterfeit
banknote protection do you?  They could do THAT with holographic inks,
etc, etc)

So - you shouldn't look at this as "How much is it going to cost me to
switch?" - but more as "How much cheaper is it going to be to switch
now than in N years time?" - right now, it's as cheap as it'll ever
be.

The alternative is to trust that Microsoft aren't going to screw you
so it's safe to put your business in their hands and ride the demon
to wherever it leads - because pretty soon, there will be no getting
off.

Now, imagine a future where you have to pay Microsoft a dollar
every time you want one of your workers to read a document they
themselves wrote.   This is certainly going to happen.  Bill Gates
has been saying for 10 years now that he belives 'Pay per view' is
the way to make money from software.  You get the software for free
and pay M$ every time you use it...and content management is the
thing that'll stop you from switching to any other product.

This is the inevitable route M$ has to take.  Right now, they have
essentially a 100% market share in a business where the product
people have now is 'good enough' for their needs.  Nobody thinks
their copy of WORD needs to be upgraded in order to get better
features.

So if M$ don't do something to get more revenue from their present
customers, they are doomed because there is no revenue to be had
from increasing their market share.

It follows that you know for absolute certainty that M$ are
going to screw more money out of your company for essentially no
benefit to you.  That's the only way M$ can stay in business.

The only question is how they are going to go about doing it and
when.

Get out now while you still can...it'll never be cheaper.

---------------------------- Steve Baker -------------------------
HomeEmail: <sjbaker1 at airmail.net>    WorkEmail: <sjbaker at link.com>
HomePage : http://www.sjbaker.org
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