[NTLUG:Discuss] Open Source

[Robert Pearson]

On Jan 31, 2008 5:50 PM, Steve Baker <steve at sjbaker.org> wrote:
> Chris Cox wrote:
> > Personally, I'm not sure about the "someday" part. I mean if somedayis
> > 30 years from now, I'm not sure if even my choice of OS will be Linux,
> > there may be something more interesting out there by then.
> I dunno.   It's certainly a much slower uphill climb than we ever
> thought ten years ago.   The sheer effort involved in giving people
> things for free is hard to believe.
>
> But I think the enemy is weakening too.  Microsoft isn't the lone giant
> it once was.  Apple and Google are nibbling away at them at the consumer
> end - and IBM at the top.  Their forey into game consoles with the Xbox
> has been successful - but at a phenomenal cost to their bottom line -
> and even there Nintendo is catching up with the
> cheaper/leaner/more-innovative approach.  The effort to get into things
> like phones and PDA's isn't doing so great - and projects like Zune are
> heammoraging cash.  Vista is an unmitigated disaster - Xbox 360 has been
> losing huge quantities of money due to warranty problems.  DRM has
> largely been recognised for the pain in the ass it truly is - our old
> concerns that in one or two more CPU cycles, Linux would be locked out
> of the CPU...that's not gonna happen.  With Google's push into telephony
> with an OpenSourced OS model and a lot of phone manufacturers backing
> them - and Apple STILL ruling the world with high end music players -
> that's going to make Microsoft's world much harder.
>
> If you look at the Microsoft bottom line:
>
>     http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=MSFT&annual
>
> Their assets are falling year by year and their liabilities are going up
> yet faster.  Total assets are dropping 10 billion dollars a year - they
> still have an ungodly amount of money in the bank - but if they keep
> paying to buy markets the way they are now, they can't keep up this
> business model for more than a few more years.   On the other hand, we
> can wait them out for another decade if we have to.
>
> The US may be the last country to switch - but with all of those
> millions of OLPD's out there...there are going to be an awful lot of 3rd
> world Linux-savvy teenagers in about 10 years time - the influx of that
> energy to the process of building OpenSourced code should hit the ground
> at about the same time that Microsoft runs out of cash and is forced to
> actually start making money.  Those kids are also likely to be the
> business and political leaders of their countries - they'll remember
> those little green and white boxes when the time comes.
>
> With the HUGE development cycle of Vista - followed by a magnificent
> flop when it hit the streets (they now have to pay manufacturers to put
> it on their computers!)  Microsoft would actually save money by dumping
> it's own OS and switching to an OpenSource base.
>
> So I'm still optimistic that Linux's time will come...but not quickly.
>
>      Steve


Interesting post about Microsoft's future, or lack of one, by Robin Harris at:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=283